6 Totally Unrelated Draft Tips
The preseason is one long day that doesn't end until the Steelers and Titans play on Thursday, September 10th. And my brain is eroding faster than usual this draft guide season, because of the new gig on top of all the usual Rotoworld fun.
Since I'm no longer able to come up with coherent ideas for a fantasy column, here are six things that have nothing to do with another.
1. More reasons to avoid Michael Turner in the top five picks
I've made this argument in various forums this offseason, but not in a Rotoworld column. So here goes.
You can debate or disprove the "Curse of 370" all you want, but that's not the only reason to be concerned with Michael Turner as a top five selection. It's fair to say he has an elevated injury risk this season and let's just leave it at that. There are plenty of other knocks on Turner get ignored:
Turner's workload will drop. Even if he stays healthy, the over/under on Turner's carries should be around 315, down 60 from last year. The Falcons want to throw more and will get Jerious Norwood more involved. Turner is a rare workhorse, but losing 60 carries will hurt his bottom line.
He doesn't catch passes. It's hard to stress this enough if you get points for receptions. Turner scored less in PPR leagues than Maurice Jones-Drew last year, when MJD was a backup. In PPR leagues, Turner was closer to Brandon Jacobs than Matt Forte. And this was while Turner was running for 1,699 yards and 17 TDs!
The extra 50 catches guys like Chris Johnson, Forte, and Brian Westbrook get is like an extra eight touchdowns.
Turner's lack of catches will also hurt in non-PPR leagues. It erodes his margin for error if he's not having a big rushing day.
Boom or bust outings Like an early-career Deuce McAllister, Turner's final numbers are often deceiving because he relies on long runs so much. That leaves him susceptible to lame performances against tough opponents. Turner was held under 60 yards with no scores four times early last season.
Turner absolutely devoured cupcakes like Oakland, Detroit, Kansas City, and the St. Louis, but those teams aren't on the schedule this year. While Turner was consistent in the second half, that had a lot to do with the schedule.
Schedule: The NFC South played both Western divisions last year, easily the two worst defensive divisions in football. Now the Falcons play both Eastern divisions. The change from the NFC West to the NFC East alone could be worth a few spots in the final rankings.
It's not like Rotoworld is burying Turner in the rankings; he's just not worth a top-five selection in any format. In PPR leagues, we drop him out of the top-15 overall.
Editor's Note: To see where Turner ranks exactly, check out the Rotoworld fantasy football draft guide. We've got every projection, tier, ranking, profile, and column you could possibly want. Plus it pays our bills for the rest of the year so we can keep providing our news 24/7 for free and afford to make Evan Silva the best-dressed man in the greater Chicago area.
2. Too many receivers going in round two?
Groupthink attitude is always dangerous this time of year. And the conventional wisdom from on high has settled on wide receivers being a must have in round two.
This logic makes sense, especially in PPR leagues, but there are no drafting rules that can't be broken, especially in standard leagues. Always be flexible.
Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs, and especially Marion Barber are slipping too far in standard leagues. I'd take the lot of them over wide receiver options like Greg Jennings and Marques Colston in round two. I'd even take them in most non-PPR scenarios over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Reggie Wayne.
The receiver group is a safe bet this year, but there is also value in rounds three and four. It's worth grabbing a second back like Barber because the drop-off in running back value is significant.
<!--RW-->3. Some depth charts matter; some don't
I wrote down my ideas for this six-pack before Professor Silva schooled everyone on the depth chart week drama.
It's a very good sign for Davone Bess that he's holding off veteran Greg Camarillo. I'm annoyed that we ever moved Bess down our rankings since our first magazine came out because all the things we love about Bess never changed.
He's a tough, sticky-handed receiver who understands NFL coverage like a 10-year veteran. He's moved backup He's not the type of player who will win your league for you, but he'll be the third receiver on many championship squads, especially in PPR leagues.
It doesn't really matter that Chiefs coach Todd Haley is using his depth chart as motivation for Dwayne Bowe or where Justin Fargas is listed in relation to Darren McFadden.
The same goes for the Bucs running back battle. We don't learn that much about running back usage in the preseason, but I believe that Ward's talent and contract will win out over a 16-game schedule. Which reminds me …
4. Don't get caught in the training camp weeds
I wrote about this on Twitter last week, but it's worth repeating for the sensible readers out there who haven't jumped on the Twitter bandwagon yet.
Don't let the day-to-day details of training camp overwhelm everything we've learned about a player when the games actually count. Practicing against the same teammates every day creates misleading heroes. Preseason games that include veterans playing at three quarter speed do the same thing.
This is a good reminder for fantasy writers, but it applies to owners as well. It especially applies to the owners who are the type to read this column and to follow Rotoworld's news every day.
Don't outsmart yourself by thinking that a few weeks in August are more important than talent, data, tape, and situation. Training camp buzz is one factor to keep in mind, but it often gets too much attention because it's the last factor we consider. Really, it's a small piece to a complicated puzzle.
Beanie Wells' sinking ADP is a good example. Is Wells' lame offseason a concern for potential owners? Absolutely. Is it more important than all the positive things he had going for him a few months ago? Not really.
Wells was still drafted to score touchdowns on one of the better offenses in the league. Tim Hightower, despite all the preseason love, still struggled badly as a rookie. Wells was selected to replace him.
Wells is more talented than Hightower and far more likely to have value. He has risk, but it's a risk worth taking since he's now dropping well into the middle rounds as a late RB3 pick.
5. It's hard to find an overvalued quarterback
Quarterback isn't a difference-making position in fantasy leagues right now. By that, I mean that most squads will have acceptable options. Almost any strategy can work. The separation in most leagues will come at running back and wide receiver.
Tiffany Simons and I went through overvalued picks in one of our Fantasy Fix preview shows, and a strange thing happened while trying to pick some busty looking quarterbacks: there weren't many choices I believed in. Or didn't believe in, rather.
It's hard to find overvalued quarterbacks this year. I'd be comfortable with most of our top-15 guys at their usual price.
If you want an elite player, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are often slipping to the third round. If you want an every week starter out of the middle rounds, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo are very safe picks for a reasonable price. If you want to go bargain shopping as the final starters are coming off the board, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Cassel are among the cheap options that you can pair together, then play the matchups.
It's not that it doesn't matter who you draft at quarterback, but I'd be confident there will be value in every draft at quarterback.
Kurt Warner would top my list if pressed for someone to avoid in the top-15, but he'll produce when he plays. (A 39-year-old dude coming off hip surgery just doesn't seem worth the risk.) Jay Cutler could also be overheated as he makes the transition to a less explosive offense.
Even Warner and Cutler don't look like busts, just unexciting picks in a season when so many other players are excellent alternatives.
6. Ray Rice's ADP is catching up with our hype
When we ranked Ray Rice as a sixth-round pick in May, it felt gutsy. The Rice Revolution would be waged on Rotoworld.
After an offseason of hype and talk about his spot atop the Ravens depth chart, Rice's Average Draft Position (ADP) has caught up with our original ranking. He's still a great mid-round pick, perhaps worth reaching for in the fifth-round in PPR leagues, but he's no secret. Rice has turned in a head-nod pick from coast to coast.
Willis McGahee sounds more motivated than usual (i.e. somewhat motivated), so he doesn't look like a bad value pick either in the late rounds. Rice and McGahee are a nice value pairing together, which I wouldn't have said in May.
This is the type of circular thinking that happens when you sit with rankings for four months and get overloaded with information. Try to stick to your guns in the coming weeks and bring on the season!
The preseason is one long day that doesn't end until the Steelers and Titans play on Thursday, September 10th. And my brain is eroding faster than usual this draft guide season, because of the new gig on top of all the usual Rotoworld fun.
Since I'm no longer able to come up with coherent ideas for a fantasy column, here are six things that have nothing to do with another.
1. More reasons to avoid Michael Turner in the top five picks
I've made this argument in various forums this offseason, but not in a Rotoworld column. So here goes.
You can debate or disprove the "Curse of 370" all you want, but that's not the only reason to be concerned with Michael Turner as a top five selection. It's fair to say he has an elevated injury risk this season and let's just leave it at that. There are plenty of other knocks on Turner get ignored:
Turner's workload will drop. Even if he stays healthy, the over/under on Turner's carries should be around 315, down 60 from last year. The Falcons want to throw more and will get Jerious Norwood more involved. Turner is a rare workhorse, but losing 60 carries will hurt his bottom line.
He doesn't catch passes. It's hard to stress this enough if you get points for receptions. Turner scored less in PPR leagues than Maurice Jones-Drew last year, when MJD was a backup. In PPR leagues, Turner was closer to Brandon Jacobs than Matt Forte. And this was while Turner was running for 1,699 yards and 17 TDs!
The extra 50 catches guys like Chris Johnson, Forte, and Brian Westbrook get is like an extra eight touchdowns.
Turner's lack of catches will also hurt in non-PPR leagues. It erodes his margin for error if he's not having a big rushing day.
Boom or bust outings Like an early-career Deuce McAllister, Turner's final numbers are often deceiving because he relies on long runs so much. That leaves him susceptible to lame performances against tough opponents. Turner was held under 60 yards with no scores four times early last season.
Turner absolutely devoured cupcakes like Oakland, Detroit, Kansas City, and the St. Louis, but those teams aren't on the schedule this year. While Turner was consistent in the second half, that had a lot to do with the schedule.
Schedule: The NFC South played both Western divisions last year, easily the two worst defensive divisions in football. Now the Falcons play both Eastern divisions. The change from the NFC West to the NFC East alone could be worth a few spots in the final rankings.
It's not like Rotoworld is burying Turner in the rankings; he's just not worth a top-five selection in any format. In PPR leagues, we drop him out of the top-15 overall.
Editor's Note: To see where Turner ranks exactly, check out the Rotoworld fantasy football draft guide. We've got every projection, tier, ranking, profile, and column you could possibly want. Plus it pays our bills for the rest of the year so we can keep providing our news 24/7 for free and afford to make Evan Silva the best-dressed man in the greater Chicago area.
2. Too many receivers going in round two?
Groupthink attitude is always dangerous this time of year. And the conventional wisdom from on high has settled on wide receivers being a must have in round two.
This logic makes sense, especially in PPR leagues, but there are no drafting rules that can't be broken, especially in standard leagues. Always be flexible.
Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs, and especially Marion Barber are slipping too far in standard leagues. I'd take the lot of them over wide receiver options like Greg Jennings and Marques Colston in round two. I'd even take them in most non-PPR scenarios over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Reggie Wayne.
The receiver group is a safe bet this year, but there is also value in rounds three and four. It's worth grabbing a second back like Barber because the drop-off in running back value is significant.
<!--RW-->3. Some depth charts matter; some don't
I wrote down my ideas for this six-pack before Professor Silva schooled everyone on the depth chart week drama.
It's a very good sign for Davone Bess that he's holding off veteran Greg Camarillo. I'm annoyed that we ever moved Bess down our rankings since our first magazine came out because all the things we love about Bess never changed.
He's a tough, sticky-handed receiver who understands NFL coverage like a 10-year veteran. He's moved backup He's not the type of player who will win your league for you, but he'll be the third receiver on many championship squads, especially in PPR leagues.
It doesn't really matter that Chiefs coach Todd Haley is using his depth chart as motivation for Dwayne Bowe or where Justin Fargas is listed in relation to Darren McFadden.
The same goes for the Bucs running back battle. We don't learn that much about running back usage in the preseason, but I believe that Ward's talent and contract will win out over a 16-game schedule. Which reminds me …
4. Don't get caught in the training camp weeds
I wrote about this on Twitter last week, but it's worth repeating for the sensible readers out there who haven't jumped on the Twitter bandwagon yet.
Don't let the day-to-day details of training camp overwhelm everything we've learned about a player when the games actually count. Practicing against the same teammates every day creates misleading heroes. Preseason games that include veterans playing at three quarter speed do the same thing.
This is a good reminder for fantasy writers, but it applies to owners as well. It especially applies to the owners who are the type to read this column and to follow Rotoworld's news every day.
Don't outsmart yourself by thinking that a few weeks in August are more important than talent, data, tape, and situation. Training camp buzz is one factor to keep in mind, but it often gets too much attention because it's the last factor we consider. Really, it's a small piece to a complicated puzzle.
Beanie Wells' sinking ADP is a good example. Is Wells' lame offseason a concern for potential owners? Absolutely. Is it more important than all the positive things he had going for him a few months ago? Not really.
Wells was still drafted to score touchdowns on one of the better offenses in the league. Tim Hightower, despite all the preseason love, still struggled badly as a rookie. Wells was selected to replace him.
Wells is more talented than Hightower and far more likely to have value. He has risk, but it's a risk worth taking since he's now dropping well into the middle rounds as a late RB3 pick.
5. It's hard to find an overvalued quarterback
Quarterback isn't a difference-making position in fantasy leagues right now. By that, I mean that most squads will have acceptable options. Almost any strategy can work. The separation in most leagues will come at running back and wide receiver.
Tiffany Simons and I went through overvalued picks in one of our Fantasy Fix preview shows, and a strange thing happened while trying to pick some busty looking quarterbacks: there weren't many choices I believed in. Or didn't believe in, rather.
It's hard to find overvalued quarterbacks this year. I'd be comfortable with most of our top-15 guys at their usual price.
If you want an elite player, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are often slipping to the third round. If you want an every week starter out of the middle rounds, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo are very safe picks for a reasonable price. If you want to go bargain shopping as the final starters are coming off the board, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Cassel are among the cheap options that you can pair together, then play the matchups.
It's not that it doesn't matter who you draft at quarterback, but I'd be confident there will be value in every draft at quarterback.
Kurt Warner would top my list if pressed for someone to avoid in the top-15, but he'll produce when he plays. (A 39-year-old dude coming off hip surgery just doesn't seem worth the risk.) Jay Cutler could also be overheated as he makes the transition to a less explosive offense.
Even Warner and Cutler don't look like busts, just unexciting picks in a season when so many other players are excellent alternatives.
6. Ray Rice's ADP is catching up with our hype
When we ranked Ray Rice as a sixth-round pick in May, it felt gutsy. The Rice Revolution would be waged on Rotoworld.
After an offseason of hype and talk about his spot atop the Ravens depth chart, Rice's Average Draft Position (ADP) has caught up with our original ranking. He's still a great mid-round pick, perhaps worth reaching for in the fifth-round in PPR leagues, but he's no secret. Rice has turned in a head-nod pick from coast to coast.
Willis McGahee sounds more motivated than usual (i.e. somewhat motivated), so he doesn't look like a bad value pick either in the late rounds. Rice and McGahee are a nice value pairing together, which I wouldn't have said in May.
This is the type of circular thinking that happens when you sit with rankings for four months and get overloaded with information. Try to stick to your guns in the coming weeks and bring on the season!
